Long Range Box Office Tracking: The Impact of COVID-19 on Springtime Moviegoing in the U.S. (March 18 Update)

On the film side of current developments, Disney confirmed to Boxoffice PRO on Tuesday that Marvel Studios’ Black Widow has been delayed to an undetermined date. It was previously scheduled to kick off the summer movie season with a global launch in late April and early May (May 1 domestically).
Disney also delayed The Woman in the Window (previously slated for wide release on May 15) to an undetermined date.

Meanwhile, Lionsgate has delayed the release of Antebellum(previously April 24), Run (previously May 8), and Spiral: From the Book of Saw (previously May 15).

Lastly, Universal’s Trolls: World Tour will be released simultaneously in theaters and on streaming due to extenuating circumstances. As such, it has been removed from our forecast. This is considered a highly unique exception, not a new standard, as the studio recently showed commitment to the theatrical window by delaying F9 a full year in response to the COVID-19 outbreak.

All of the aforementioned updates are now reflected in the long range forecast chart below.

Prior to these announcements, domestic box office declined 47 percent from the previous weekend in reaction to last week’s unprecedented world developments mentioned in this post’s earlier reports.

There will be an obvious interruption to our usual forecasting, but in our aim to maintain as many norms as possible during this challenging time, we will continue to report as much relevant box office information as possible.

Given the mid-week closures of major theater circuits, we will be foregoing a weekend forecast this week as it remains unclear if more smaller theaters may opt to temporarily close before this weekend arrives.